You really can time the stock market
The idea of trying to "time" the market -- of trying to get in before it goes up, and get out before it goes down -- has a terrible reputation. Timing "is a wicked idea -- don't try it, ever," wrote Charles Ellis, one of the leading lights of index investing, many years ago. According to conventional wisdom, any attempt to time the market is fundamentally flawed. Stock markets follow a "random walk," they say. No one can predict the market's next move, so trying to do so will end up costing you money. A lot of your long-term gains will come from a few big "up" days, and these are completely unpredictable -- if you are out of the market when they happen you will miss out on a lot of profits. Money managers often push this idea to the clients. It has, from their point of view, a side benefi…