Has reached the limit? Human civilization is heading for a crash or prophecy come true

According to the British "Guardian" reported that in 1972 a book entitled "The Limits to Growth," the first issue, in this book, the authors predicted that our civilization will be given in the 21st century moment of collapse. This view since the launch of this book would have been parties to criticism, and was regarded as a "doomsday theory pessimistic" typical. In 2002, a self-proclaimed environmental expert Jon Lang Boge (Bjorn Lomborg) directly be referred to as "the dustbin of history."
40 years ago, predictions
But perhaps not the case. A study conducted by the University of Melbourne in this book show the prediction made in the past 40 years, proved to be quite accurate. And if we continue along the trajectory described in the book, then a global collapse may really far off.
"The Limits to Growth," a book by a "Club of Rome" think tank called planning. HP 2000-2d19SX CPU Fan One of the researchers, mainly from MIT, including the husband and wife team member Donella Meadows and Dennis Meadows, they jointly developed a computer model of a product called "World3" and used to track changes in the world economy and the environment, in The computer model was quite leading.
Their vision is very ambitious - group plans to global industrialization, population, food, resource use and pollution in areas such as tracking. The data they used in the simulation of the latest deadline to 1970, then designed a series of different scenarios, simulation straight ahead to 2100, the differences between the different scenarios depending on whether or not to take seriously the environment and human resources facing problems. If mankind fails to take serious action to deal with, then the book predicts the economy will face human civilization before 2070, out of control and crash comprehensive environment and population. This part of the case under the "laissez-faire" conditions will be facing.
The central point of the book is the most severe criticism was the key point is that "the earth is limited," the face of population growth and material needs endless contradictions between the two will eventually lead the collapse of human civilization.
Verification of prophecy
So whether this view correct? Gateway NV7801U Series CPU Fan Australian scientists have collected actual data after the publication of the book nearly 40 years, and were compared with the forecast in the book. They compared the statistics of the global economy, agriculture and food, etc. from the relevant United Nations agencies, plus a large number of authoritative sources of statistical data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the BP statistical data, the results are displayed in 40 years after the publication of the book between 1972, the global data base running along the predicted path of the year in the book did.
The results of this study suggest that our current world is basically along the "Limits to Growth," a book said the "laissez-faire" mode, because we get the actual data does not match with the other modes.
As MIT researchers said at the time in 1972, in the "laissez-faire" model, the rapid growth of population and material demand will lead to higher industrial production and more pollution. The analysis showed that such a situation is indeed taking place. Resources are being rapidly depleted, increasing pollution, industrial output and per capita food is rising, rapid population growth.
That, at least until today, "Limits to Growth" situation envisaged a book really is happening , then the future?
According to this point of the book, in order to maintain the growing industrial growth, must ensure that the resource requirements of the same gone. However, with the gradual depletion of resources, prices will rise, increasing the cost of access to resources. Toshiba Satellite L600-03R CPU Fan And with more and more money being put into resource extraction industries, the per capita industrial output efficiency will begin to decline, according to the book given point in time, by about 2015 this trend began to emerge from.
With high pollution, agricultural production will occur, resulting in turnovers per capita supply decreased. Health and education services will be weakened, these factors together, around the beginning of 2020 will lead to increased population mortality. The world's population will begin to decline from about the beginning of 2030, the speed is about every 10 years to reduce the 500 million people, while the people's standard of living will be a throwback to 1900s levels.
According to the book presentation, the main factors leading to the collapse of the global resource constraints. In the book, however, also a number of other aspects of the factors that made the exposition, including the consequences of pollution and climate change and other issues continued exacerbated. The book warns that the growth of carbon dioxide emissions would "lead to heating of the atmosphere," by, which has a "sense of the impact of climate."
Symptoms appear collapse
As this article with pictures of the shows, the analysis researchers at the University of Melbourne, Australia, the data show that at least as of 2010, the world has not yet appeared signs of collapse (although in some areas, economic growth has basically stalled). According to the "Limits to Growth," a book, the world will begin to show symptoms of collapse between 2015-2030.
The first phase of the recession may have begun. 2007-2008 of the global financial crisis and subsequent economic slump is perhaps a harbinger of this resource crisis. Endless pursuit of material life leads unsustainably high debt levels, food and fuel prices soared.
Petroleum resources have been on the verge of crisis. Many independent researchers have warned that easy exploitation of conventional oil resources has reached peak production, it is difficult to continue to enhance the space. Even the always conservative International Energy Agency (IEA) also issued a similar warning.
Oil production stagnation may be a harbinger of a global collapse. Some people say that shale oil, oil sands and coal-bed methane exploration may be able to alleviate this crisis, but the problem here is that these new sources of resources but also how long before you reach a certain production scale, it can be maintained long mining , as well as a number of high cost exploitation of these resources. If the high cost of mining, which produces a cascade effect will be extensive.
Of contemporary warning
This latest study did not show that the global economy, the environment and population collapse would be a certainty and irreversible, it does not imply that the development trends in the world of 1972 will be exactly according to MIT researchers predicted the future. During this period, there may be a war broke out, or maybe there will be a truly global environmental leader appears. All of these uncertainties arise are likely to change the trend.
However, this study can indeed wake-up call for us. HP Pavilion dv7-1007ef CPU Fan It now appears that in order to maintain the current economic growth endless lasted until 2100 and does not have a serious negative result is unlikely - and this negative outcome arrival time may be more than we originally envisaged earlier.
Now wants to go to convince the world's political and economic elite circles are changing the existing development path may have been too late. But as the rest of us, we should all go to think, when we face such an uncertain future, how to protect yourself?
In "The Limits to Growth," a book published in 1972, the authors come to this conclusion:
"If the current world population, industrialization, pollution, food production, and resource depletion trends do change, then we will increase the limits of the planet at a time of arrival of the next 100 years, the most likely outcome will be population and industrial output fell suddenly and can not stop. "
From today's point of view, those of 40 years ago had said these words likely will prove to be correct.